Evidence and the Politics of Reform: Lessons from Indonesia's Social Welfare Development

Indonesia is often praised as a success story of welfare reform in the developing world. Many have credited democratization for driving this transformation, arguing that a more open political system made governments more responsive to public demands for broader welfare provisions. Yet this explanation overlooks the deeper, messier realities behind critical policy choices. Why did Indonesia, against political instincts, cut popular fuel subsidies? Why invest in complex, expensive social welfare infrastructure? Why build elaborate systems for targeting the poor instead of opting for faster, simpler universal transfers during times of crisis? Evidence and the Politics of Reform reveals that Indonesia's reforms were rarely the product of pure benevolence or the rational application of research evidence. More often, they were born out of intense political pressure, urgent fiscal realities, and a narrowing of options - and at times, even the best-laid reform models faltered.

Through eight in-depth case studies spanning 1998 to 2024, this book explores how Indonesia navigated these challenges. It demystifies the idea of "evidence-based policymaking," showing that evidence alone seldom drives decisions; politics, trust, timing, and institutional dynamics often play just as critical a role. Rich in firsthand insights and grounded in real-world complexity, Evidence and the Politics of Reform offers a compelling look at how major reforms happen - and what it takes to turn good evidence into lasting policy change.