Ukraine and the Art of Strategy

The Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, subsequent war in Eastern Ukraine and economic sanctions imposed by the West, transformed European politics. These events marked a dramatic shift away from the optimism of the post-Cold War era. The conflict did not escalate to the levels originally feared but nor was either side able to bring it to a definitive conclusion. Ukraine suffered a loss of territory but was not forced into changing its policies away from the Westward course adopted as a result of the EuroMaidan uprising of February 2014. President Putin was left supporting a separatist enclave as Russia's economy suffered significant damage.

In Ukraine and the Art of Strategy, Lawrence Freedman-author of the landmark Strategy: A History-provides an account of the origins and course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict through the lens of strategy. Freedman describes the development of President Putin's anxieties that former Soviet countries were being drawn towards the European Union, the effective pressure he put on President Yanokvych of Ukraine during 2013 to turn away from the EU and the resulting 'EuroMaidan Revolution' which led to Yanukovych fleeing. He explores the reluctance of Putin to use Russian forces to do more that consolidate the insurgency in Eastern Ukraine, the failure of the Minsk peace process and the limits of the international response. Putin's strategic-making is kept in view at all times, including his use of 'information warfare' and attempts to influence the American election. In contrast to those who see the Russian leader as a master operator who catches out the West with bold moves Freedman sees him as impulsive and so forced to improvise when his gambles fail.

Freedman's application of his strategic perspective to this supremely important conflict challenges our understanding of some of its key features and the idea that Vladimir Putin is unmatched as a strategic mastermind.

"In Ukraine and the Art of Strategy, Sir Lawrence Freedman provides an account of the origins and course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict through the lens of the theory and practice of strategy. That is, he explores Putin's near, medium, and long-term strategies when he decided to initiate the conflict. How successful has he been? In contrast to many who see Putin as a master operator who has resuscitated a supine Russia against all odds, Freedman is less impressed with his strategic acumen in terms of the long-term fallout. By exploring concepts such as coercive diplomacy, limited war, escalation and information operations, Freedman brings the story up to the present, where a low-level conflict between Ukrainian and breakaway rebel forces in the east grinds on, and illuminates the external challenges faced by the governments' involved"--

Freedman skilfully sifts evidence and arguments, mostly cutting through propaganda and disinformation -- Robert Brinkley, Chatham House Ukraine Forum, UK, International Affairs

Freedman's book provides an original contribution to the growing number of academic studies of the Russian-Ukrainian war since 2014. -- Taras Kuzio, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Europe-Asia Studies

Freedman's book offers a thorough and insightful accounting of not just how and why Russia seized Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine in 2014, but also the broader strategic lessons and implications of the crisis and the West's response. A must-read for anyone interested in Russia's ongoing confrontation with the West and the form that it has taken in Ukraine. -Charles A. Kupchan, Professor of International Affairs, Georgetown University, and Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

When the Dean of the Art of Strategy expounds, the students say 'Give us an example.' And what an example!, It is an instant classic of the 'case study, ' casting all others of the genre into the shadows. To comprehend the vicissitudes of clashing nations, the book is as surprising as it is convincing. -Charles Hill, Distinguished Fellow in Grand Strategy, Yale University, and Research Fellow, the Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Freedman cuts through the fog of disinformation that has engulfed Ukraine, systematically challenging Western and Russian 'hot takes' alike, grounding his study in fact and imbuing it with just the right mix of wisdom and humility. Above all, he reminds us that war is a time not to seek flippant answers, but to ask vexing questions. -Samuel Greene, Director, King's Russia Institute and Reader in Russian Politics, King's College London

Freedman places the war in Ukraine under the dispassionate eye of a master strategist and applying lessons from the study of deterrence, limited war, and strategic theory. His analysis is essential for thinking clearly about the war raging in the middle of Europe - and perhaps more important, for thinking realistically about how to end it. -Tom Nichols, author of The Death of Expertise