"Enemy We Were Fighting Was Not What We Had Predicted." What is Wrong With IPB at the Dawn of the 21

Why has an S2 never won a wargame when playing predicted enemy courses of action against a friendly course of action during the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP)? Why did the V Corps commander during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) respond to a question about the threat by saying "the enemy we're fighting is different from the one we'd wargamed against "? Both these questions are troubling and lead to deeper questions about the process in developing enemy courses of action. This monograph will identify theoretical and analytical difficulties within current IPB doctrine. In addition, this document will show how these difficulties became institutionalized through Cold War realities within the Army intelligence estimate process. Historical evidence will be presented to support the claim that the identified difficulties are detrimental to Army operations in ambiguous and uncertain environments. Finally, this paper will present alternative theoretical constructs to the current IPB process for consideration in future IPB doctrine. The aim of this paper is to widen the scope of IPB doctrine to include other theoretical frameworks as tools for the Army intelligence officer and analyst as they consider the 21st Century threat facing them.

This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.

This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.

As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.