Government Budget Forecasting: Theory and Practice

Revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, this volume examines U.S. forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, utilizing case studies of various states, including California and Texas. It highlights such issues as casino tax revenues and welfare caseloads to clearly define budget forecasting, explain its importance, and describe how budget forecasts are prepared. The authors explore consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors, concluding with a call for transparency and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.