Stochastic Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

This book analyzes the impact of environmental noise on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using a stochastic SEIAR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Symptomatically Infectious, Asymptomatically Infectious, Recovered). Unlike deterministic models, stochastic systems can lead to opposite outcomes (persistence or extinction) depending on the threshold defined by the stochastic basic reproduction number (R0). Aimed at researchers, public health policymakers, and graduate students, the work combines mathematical rigor with practical applications, with the goal of improving preparedness for future epidemics.