For thirty-one years, I served as the Director of Research at Futures Truth Magazine. During this time, I had the great pleasure of working with some of the brightest minds in technical analysis, including Fitschen, Stuckey, Ruggiero, Fox, Waite, and many others. I learned from their expertise and witnessed firsthand how their trend-following techniques soared to great heights, only to plummet and eventually rise again. From late 2014 to early 2020, I observed the entire trend-following industry collapse. Systems such as Aberration, CatScan, Andromeda, Super Turtle, and many others that had thrived on the high-flying trends of the 1990s, 2000s, and early 2010s, faded away well before the onset of the pandemic.
For many years, trend followers were the darlings of numerous futures fund managers, who once controlled billions. However, since the pandemic, we have seen many of these systems rise from the ashes like a Phoenix. The long-awaited increase in commodity prices finally arrived as the world began to shut down. This prolonged period of stagnation outlasted many fund managers' ability to endure; incentive fees went unpaid for years. With no downturn to hedge against, many turned to simply buying and holding tech stocks. Commodities, being limited resources like oil, corn, beans, and gold, were expected to rise in price eventually. This belief sustained us as we wandered in the wilderness after the last boom in 2014.
It took a major global disaster to finally stir prices and pressure the stock market. The raging bull market that had trampled hedge fund managers for years began to show signs of weakness. However, this weakness was short-lived as the post-pandemic reopening and the artificial intelligence boom propelled the stock market to all-time highs. The recession that many experts predicted has yet to materialize, even as we grapple with heightened inflation. We are continually confronted with conflicting and evolving views on the future of our economy. Could this period of flux usher in the type of markets that can be harnessed by the trend-following techniques of the '90s?
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