Probability Fundamentals: An Intuitive Guide to Understanding Uncertainty

Gain a decision-making edge by learning probability in a way that actually makes sense!

Probability affects far more of our lives than most people realize. It shapes medical testing, risk assessment, scientific research, and decision-making. Yet it is an area where intuition breaks down easily.

Build the skills to reason clearly under uncertainty, solve real-world problems, and avoid the intuitive mistakes that lead people astray.

Probability Fundamentals helps you develop a practical understanding using clear explanations and real-world applications. Understand the reasoning behind the calculations so they don't feel mysterious. Along the way, you'll solve counterintuitive problems that make probability both fascinating and challenging.

Learn the fundamentals of probability:

• Learn how to apply probabilistic thinking.
• Use contingency tables and empirical probabilities to analyze data.
• Learn and apply the core probability rules correctly.
• Interpret conditional probabilities, independence, and risk.
• Use Bayes' Theorem and Bayesian thinking to update probabilities.
• Learn counting methods and combinatorics.
• Work with the binomial, normal, Poisson, and related distributions.
• Calculate probabilities, confidence intervals, and p-values.
• Build practical skills with 100+ practice problems.
• Access fully worked solutions, free statistical calculators, and additional online resources.